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With the market surging, the Chinese solar downturn could present a major windfall for Australian PV project developers. While the extent of module price declines, on the back of reduced Chinese market demand is yet to become fully clear, the advance of big solars competitiveness is set to continue throughout 2018.Initial module price declines are already evident in many markets, despite some Chinese manufacturers scaling back production to limit oversupply. However, prices are undoubtably down and in the medium to long term, the trend towards cheaper modules is clear.Rystad Energys Ben Willacy tells聽pv magazine Australia that if prices were to decline by 20-30%, as has been forecast by some analysts, installed large scale solar prices could head towards $1/W DC. This in turn could drive breakeven prices below $60 per megawatt hour, depending on the rate of return targeted by project owners, says Willacy. This would place the cost of utility scale solar below t stanley cup he forward price curve for most Australian states and territories, ensuring it remains competitive despite falling wholesale electricity and LGC prices. First to take note of the new emerging competitive reality for PV would be commercial and industrial electr stanley cup icity users, says Willacy, particularly in light of the growing number of stanley cup bilateral PPAs being entered into by solar farm owners and large electricity consumers and independent retailers. The outlook for merchant PV projects, however, is not so straightforward. T
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